Rating agency Fitch Ratings projects that the Ghanaian government could extend temporary measures introduced to cushion consumers against rising petroleum prices.
According to Fitch, the extension is likely if the fiscal cost remains below 0.1% of GDP per month and can be offset by savings elsewhere.
The projection was contained in Fitch’s latest country assessment report on Ghana, where the agency also upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a Positive Outlook.
Fitch said the government may be compelled to maintain the intervention because of the potential impact of rising fuel prices on inflation.
Background
The government on April 16, 2026, announced temporary relief measures aimed at cushioning consumers from rising fuel prices amid rising crude oil prices on the international market.
The intervention saw the state absorb GH¢2 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol.
The policy, which took effect from April 16, was expected to last for one month and is therefore due to expire on May 16, 2026.
In a statement issued at the time, Government Communications Minister Felix Kwakye Ofosu said the move was in response to sharp increases in global oil prices, which had pushed up ex-pump prices locally and affected transportation costs and broader economic activity.
“Government remains committed to maintaining price stability, protecting livelihoods, and supporting Ghana’s economic recovery in the face of external shocks,” the statement said.
Pricing outlook
Crude oil prices have started climbing again on the international market following reports that US President Donald Trump is unhappy with a proposed peace plan involving Iran.
The development has pushed Brent crude prices to around $105 per barrel.
Petroleum prices are expected to be reviewed again starting May 16, 2026, with indications of possible increases if global price pressures persist.
Petrol prices have already risen by between 0.10% and 0.51% per litre, while diesel prices have increased by nearly 6.77%.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are also expected to rise by between 7.24% and 10.41%.
Industry analysts say the LPG increase reflects delayed effects from the current tender arrangement, which had previously cushioned consumers from earlier price hikes.
Fitch on Ghana’s economy
Fitch said inflation is expected to rise gradually toward the end of the year due to higher oil prices.
However, the agency maintained that inflation should continue trending downward on an annual average basis through 2026 and 2027.
“We anticipate Bank of Ghana will remain prudent and pause its easing cycle to prevent inflation risks from materialising, after a cumulative 1,400bp monetary policy rate cut between July 2025 and March 2026, to 14%,” Fitch said.
On Ghana’s debt position, Fitch projected that public debt will decline further to 46% of GDP by 2027, below its forecast median of 51% for countries rated ‘B’.
“This follows a 21pp fall in 2025 driven by a sharp appreciation of the cedi and robust fiscal consolidation,” the report added.
Fitch also projected strong economic growth through 2027, forecasting average GDP expansion of 5%, supported by gold mining, improving consumer confidence, easing inflation and lower borrowing costs.
“We forecast the current account surplus will remain strong in 2026, after a record surplus of 8.2% of GDP in 2025, supported by our assumption that gold prices remain high this year,” the report said.
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